Thursday, November 24, 2011

4th and Very Looong

My fantasy season is mostly over thanks to a very flawed strategy of taking crappy players on crappy teams and Andre Johnson and Jay Cutler as my holdovers.

Oh well.  Onward and Upward.  So, I had two free agent moves left and I picked up Peyton Manning and Kenny Britt.  Both of which will cost me $20 to holdover (total budget of $181...don't ask).  So less than 10% for each to get a Top 3 QB and a rising star at WR who was the second best until a blown ligament. 

I also have Antonio Brown for $8 and Tim Tebow for $5.  I was hoping Stevan Ridley would have taken over for BenJarvis Green-Ellis by now...or at least an injury so he would get 15 plus touches a game.  No luck there.

Looks like I will be paying big bucks for a #1 and #2 RB next year.  Fingers crossed that Manning is back and Britt is 100%.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Who is the Biggest Bust in Fantasy Football This Year?

Check out the poll in the right-hand column.

First, let me preface this by saying that Jamal Charles and Peyton Manning are not on this list.  Why?  Because even though they were first and second rounders and if you took them you are not getting anything from them, at least you knew that early and you could cut bait on them early on.  Andre Johnson you are stuck holding the bag.  Worse is brother Chris, who, up until this week, you had to start.

These guys were all first, second or early third rounders and you are theoretically bound to start them, week in and week out.

Any names I missed?

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Javon Ringer Should Take Over for Chris Johnson, But He Won't

You heard it here first.  Mike Munchak is saying all the wrong things and he is lying through his teeth.  He says that Johnson's teammates are behind him (which, if you think about it is a problem for a running back, wouldn't you want them in front of you?).

But really, Munchak needs to hand the reigns over to Javon Ringer, who looks better, runs better, and is a better teammate.  Ringer's main problem?  He isn't raking in the big dollars, so he's not going to get a fair shake.

My last dollar says that management of the Titans is telling Munchak to keep Johnson in there because they just dropped a big wad of cash on him and they need to justify their (poor) decision.

Publish Post

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Tim Tebow is my Savior?

My strategy this year was to wait on starting QB, get a couple of mid-value guys, then shuffle them in-and-out of the lineup depending on the weekly matchup.

I felt pretty good about coming away with Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler.  What a mistake.  Cutler, through no fault of his own, cannot stay upright.  And Flacco has been mediocre.  On a weekly basis, I feel that I am already down 10 points to my opponents going into any matchup.  Hell, they could have Rex Grossman going and I still don't feel confident that Flacco or Cutler will post 20 plus points (we get 6 points for any TD in our league). 

Therein lies my strategic problem.  With the value of TD's at 6 points, QB is vital to success in our league. 

Okay, hindsight is 20/20.  What to do now? 

Call in the Savior...Tim Tebow.  Granted, I have to wait another week, but he could be this fantasy season's Michael Vick.  This is for fantasy, I don't give a crap if Denver losses the rest of their games.  I just want Tim "Fantasy Savior" Tebow out there, running, throwing, catching, punting, kicking, tackling...whatever it takes to score points.

In limited action last weekend, he put up 17 fantasy points in a standard scoring league.  In my league, that would have been good for 18 points.  In one half!!!  Last season he averaged 25 points per game in the last 3 games of the season (in my league, it was slightly better at 28.33 ppg). 

So, I am going with Tebow.  My season may be over (I have Andre Johnson as my #1 point-getter.  Ouch.), so at least I can holdover Tebow for next-to-nothing for next year. 

Tebow in 2012.  I like the sound of that.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

When to throw in the towel?

For those of us in leagues that have holdovers and are 1-4 or 0-5, when is the time to start trolling for holdovers?

In my money league, not only am I off to a slow start at 1-4, but my best player guessed it Andre Johnson.  The same Andre Johnson that cost me over 25% of my budget and is out for who knows how long.  The rest of my lineup is suspect, too.  Cutler/Flacco at QB, Cedric Benson at RB, Brandon Lloyd as my number 2 WR. 

I have already been offered Jamaal Charles straight up, he would only cost me $16 or less than 10% of my budget next year.  If I were 0-5, I would probably take that deal and start planning for next year.  However, I think I'll stick it out until I get to 6 losses.  That could happen very soon, of course, but we will see.

I think everyone should stick with it until they get to the 6 loss week 7.  I have seen teams run off 5, 6, or even 7 game winning streaks.  Anything can happen.  Say you started out 1-4 or 0-5, then run off 6 straight?  You are back in it! 

Friday, October 7, 2011

The Talented Mr. Ridley...Stevan Ridley

Sneaky Pick?  I don't think so any more.  Everyone saw what Stevan Ridley could do in the preseason and we all got a bigger peak at his potential this past Sunday against the Oakland Raiders. 

What we are seeing is the beginning of another Faulk era in football.  And not the estimitable Kevin of New England and LSU fame.  No.  This could be another Marshall of NFL HOF, Indianapolis Colts and St. Louis Rams fame. 

With Danny Woodhead banged up, this increases Faulk, er Ridley's playing time.  BenJarvis Green-Ellis will still get 10 to 15 carries, but this New Era Faulk will get 12 carries and 4 catches this weekend and has the breakaway ability to score one from 60 plus yards out.  Conservatively, we are looking at 8 fantasy points.  Aggressively, 18 with a line of 12 carries for 100 yards, 4 catches for 20, and the long gainer TD for another 6 points. 

Risky play?  Maybe, but if you have a spot on your roster and if you are in a holdover or dynasty league, grab Ridley now and thank me later.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Andre Johnson Replacements?

Bryant Johnson? 
Jacoby Jones?
Kevin Walter?

I think that Jacoby Jones will take on the position, but Walter gets more looks now that Andre Johnson is hurt.  That said, I would not burn a move or drop a Nate (Burleson or Washington) in doing so. 

Andre Johnson will be back within a couple of weeks.

Friday, September 30, 2011

Bottom 8 defenses against the Run – Tim Hightower and Ray Rice will dominate

1.      Rams v. Washington – Tim Hightower – play, Top 5 in points this week

2.      Jets v. Baltimore – Ray Rice – play, Top 5 in points

3.      Eagles v. San Francisco – Frank Gore/ Kendall Hunter – play, unless you have better option

4.      Browns v. Tennessee – Chris Johnson – play, Top 10

5.      Chiefs v. Minnesota – Adrian Peterson – play, Top 5

6.      Cardinals v. New York Giants – Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs – play whichever you have, possibly both

7.      Raiders v. New England – BenJarvis Green-Ellis/Stevan Ridley/Danny Woodhead – play Green-Ellis

8.   Colts v. Tampa – LeGarrett Blount – play, Top 10 in points

Top Ten Defenses Against the Run - What RB's to Play or Sit against them

  1. Packers v. Denver  (Willis McGahee – SIT...may get 4 or 5 points)
  2. Cowboys v. Detroit (Jahvid Best – sit if you have better option, will still get 8 points thanks to involvement in passing game)
  3. 49ers v. Philadelphia (LeSean McCoy – sit if you have better option, will still get 8 points thanks to involvement in passing game)
  4. Vikings v. Kansas City (McCluster/Jones – sit, McCluster gets 7 points, Jones 4 points)
  5. Jaguars v. New Orleans (Mark Ingram – play, will get TD and 60 yds, good for 12 points)
  6. Ravens v. New York Jets (Shonne Green/LaDanian Tomlinson – sit, neither will get more than 5 points)
  7. Bengals v. Buffalo (Fred Jackson – sit only if you have better option, will still get 12 points thanks to his involvement in passing game)
  8. Titans v. Cleveland (Peyton Hillis/Montario Hardesty – sit, neither gets a TD, best case is Hillis getting 8 points, Hardesty 3 points)
  9. Saints v. Jacksonville (Maurice Jones-Drew -- sit only if you have better options, will still get 14 points as he will score a TD)
  10. Patriots v. Oakland (Darren McFadden – play no matter what, will get 16 plus points thanks to his involvement in passing game)

Monday, September 26, 2011

Sidney Rice over Cedric it right, but what good does that do me?

Not much.  I got creamed this weekend with my opponent having Schaub, McFadden and the Ravens DST.

Oh well, maybe James Starks will show up for me next weekend?

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Why I Am Starting Sidney Rice over Cedric Benson

As we hear all the time...the NFL is about "match-ups."  So here we go...Sidney Rice has not played yet this season and Cedric Benson is having a nice start to his season.  Why do I mention these two...because Rice is up against one of the worst passing defenses and Benson is going up against one of the best running defenses. 

Play the matchups and ignore the names when it comes to picking your flex options.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Top 100 PPR Rankings for Week 2

Top 150 Flex PPR Rankings -- Week 2
Rice, Ray RB, BAL 
Johnson, Calvin WR, DET 
Johnson, Andre WR, HOU 
Mendenhall, Rashard RB, PIT 
Hillis, Peyton RB, CLE 
McCoy, LeSean RB, PHI 
Fitzgerald, Larry WR, ARI 
Austin, Miles WR, DAL 
Jennings, Greg WR, GB 
Wallace, Mike WR, PIT 
Peterson, Adrian RB, MIN 
McFadden, Darren RB, OAK 
Forte, Matt RB, CHI 
Charles, Jamaal RB, KC 
Foster, Arian RB, HOU 
Best, Jahvid RB, DET 
Nicks, Hakeem WR, NYG 
Williams, Mike WR, TB 
Wayne, Reggie WR, IND 
Marshall, Brandon WR, MIA 
Witten, Jason TE, DAL 
Turner, Michael RB, ATL 
Holmes, Santonio WR, NYJ 
Jackson, DeSean WR, PHI 
Jackson, Vincent WR, SD 
Boldin, Anquan WR, BAL 
Welker, Wes WR, NE 
Finley, Jermichael TE, GB 
Gates, Antonio TE, SD 
Davis, Vernon TE, SF 
Jackson, Fred RB, BUF 
Bryant, Dez WR, DAL 
Moss, Santana WR, WAS 
Graham, Jimmy TE, NO 
Hernandez, Aaron TE, NE 
Olsen, Greg TE, CAR 
Clark, Dallas TE, IND 
Jones, Felix RB, DAL 
Hightower, Tim RB, WAS 
White, Roddy WR, ATL 
Gore, Frank RB, SF 
Bowe, Dwayne WR, KC 
Benson, Cedric RB, CIN 
Bradshaw, Ahmad RB, NYG 
Tolbert, Mike RB, SD 
Johnson, Chris RB, TEN 
Jones-Drew, Maurice RB, JAC 
Bush, Reggie RB, MIA 
Manningham, Mario WR, NYG 
Burress, Plaxico WR, NYJ 
Starks, James RB, GB 
Keller, Dustin TE, NYJ 
Britt, Kenny WR, TEN 
Lloyd, Brandon WR, DEN 
Johnson, Steve WR, BUF 
Harvin, Percy WR, MIN 
Maclin, Jeremy WR, PHI 
Nelson, Jordy WR, GB 
Gonzalez, Tony TE, ATL 
Daniels, Owen TE, HOU 
Jones, Julio WR, ATL 
Pettigrew, Brandon TE, DET 
Burleson, Nate WR, DET 
Sims-Walker, Mike WR, STL 
Ward, Hines WR, PIT 
Smith, Steve WR, CAR 
Wells, Beanie RB, ARI 
Kendricks, Lance TE, STL 
Gresham, Jermaine TE, CIN 
Meachem, Robert WR, NO 
Winslow, Kellen TE, TB 
Evans, Lee WR, BAL 
Collie, Austin WR, IND 
Knox, Johnny WR, CHI 
Moore, Lance WR, NO 
Henderson, Devery WR, NO 
Gronkowski, Rob TE, NE 
Greene, Shonn RB, NYJ 
Floyd, Malcom WR, SD 
Edwards, Braylon WR, SF 
Gibson, Brandon WR, STL 
Moore, Evan TE, CLE 
Cooley, Chris TE, WAS 
Davis, Fred TE, WAS 
Blount, LeGarrette RB, TB 
Sproles, Darren RB, NO 
Tate, Ben RB, HOU 
Mathews, Ryan RB, SD 
Garcon, Pierre WR, IND 
Addai, Joseph RB, IND 
Bess, Davone WR, MIA 
Branch, Deion WR, NE 
Dickson, Ed TE, BAL 
Celek, Brent TE, PHI 
McGahee, Willis RB, DEN 
Green-Ellis, BenJarvus RB, NE 
Green, A.J. WR, CIN 
Gaffney, Jabar WR, WAS 
Watson, Benjamin TE, CLE 
Chandler, Scott TE, BUF